Stem rust rises again

by Martin Price 

The Gates Foundation has made a US$26.8 million grant to Cornell University to launch a global partnership to combat the rust diseases of wheat, particularly the virulent stem rust strain from eastern Africa, Ug99.  The new project will involve researchers from Cornell, the International Center for Improvement of Corn and Wheat (CIMMYT) and the Syria-based International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), FAO, and the national agricultural research programs of Ethiopia and Kenya. Among other activities, the project will seek to replace susceptible varieties with seed of durably resistant varieties and to introduce genetic immunity to rust from rice to wheat.

CIMMYT write, "The stem rust race Ug99, identified in Uganda in 1999, is the only known race of P. graminis tritici to be virulent against the resistance genes that have kept wheat crops safe for decades. The presence of the new rust was confirmed in the Arabian Peninsula and Sudan in 2006, and in Iran in 2007. Prevailing wind patterns predict its spread to the vast wheat-growing areas of North Africa, the Middle East, and Central, West, and South Asia. Most major wheat cultivars in this migration path are susceptible to Ug99, so annual losses of as much as USD 3 billion are possible. The effects on rural livelihoods and geopolitical stability would be incalculable, particularly given the current global food shortage crisis."

Developments on Biofuel (Ethanol or Gasohol) from Farm Crops and Potential Impact on Smallholder Farmers

By Martin Price 

A delegate from Uganda to the ECHO Agriculture Conference in 2007 asked me what maize farmers could do because the price of maize was so low.  I told him that because of events elsewhere in the world, the price of maize is increasing rapidly around the world and is likely to be higher in Uganda very soon.  In the United States in recent years large and increasing amounts of the maize crop is being used to make ethanol (ethyl alcohol) to mix with gasoline. It is estimated that about 30 percent of U.S. maize production will go into ethanol in 2008 (1). This is due to the desire to become "energy independent," i.e. not relying totally on imported oil.  This is already creating shortages that have caused the global price of maize to rise significantly.  So even though developing countries like Uganda are not likely to themselves make ethanol from maize, if those countries import maize, it will cost much more and imports will likely also decrease.  Both factors should eventually lead to increased prices received by farmers.